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114   Notes to the Financial Statements                                                                                                                                                                                            115


              Under IFRS 9 customers may move from a stage 1       – the remaining lifetime PD at the reporting date                    Forbearance analysis
              provision exposure to a stage 2 exposure as a result   based on the modified terms; with                                  The table below shows the value of forbearance arrangements agreed by the Bank.
              of a significant increase in credit risk. To determine     – the remaining lifetime PD estimated based
              whether the credit risk on a particular financial   on data on initial recognition and the original
              instrument has increased significantly since initial   contractual terms.                                                                                                                                 Value of loans
              recognition the Bank reviews each account annually,                                                                                                   No. of loans                                  (in concession period)
              or more regularly, should the customer’s payment   Should modification result in a derecognition                          31 December                                Completed      No. of customers
              record show any deterioration.                    event, the Bank would make an assessment as to
                                                                whether the new financial asset is credit impaired at                   2022                 In concession        Concession  (in concession period)           £’000
              As a backstop, and as required by IFRS 9, the Bank   initial recognition.                                                 Asset Finance                  –                   –                   –                  –
              will presumptively consider that a significant increase
              in credit risk occurs no later than when an asset is   Forbearance can be temporary or permanent                          Real Estate                   12                   9                  12               9,597
              more than 30 days past due.                       depending on the circumstances, progress
                                                                on rehabilitation, and the detail of the                                Total                         12                   9                  12               9,597
              For an account to be ‘cured’ i.e. evidence a      concession agreed.
              significant reduction in credit risk, and return from
              stage 2 to stage 1, the customer would need to    Forbearance – curing                                                                                                                                    Value of loans
              demonstrate a good track record of payments.                                                                                                          No. of loans                                  (in concession period)
                                                                Loans are classified as forborne at the time
              Movement from stage 3 to stage 2 will only occur   a customer in financial difficulty is granted                          31 December                                Completed      No. of customers
              when the borrower satisfies all the criteria in the   a concession.                                                       2021                 In concession        Concession  (in concession period)           £’000
              table above.
                                                                The customer will remain treated and recorded as                        Asset Finance                  –                  15                   –                  –
              All staging classifications are subject to management   forborne until the following exit conditions are met:             Real Estate                    9                  10                   6              12,151
              review and can be overridden subject to
              appropriate approval at the Bank’s Provision or      – When all due payments, as per the amended                          Total                          9                  25                   6              12,151
              Credit Committees.                                  contractual terms, have been made in a timely
                                                                  manner over a continuous repayment period                           *  Excludes 2 customers who completed their forbearance concession and within 2 years subsequently been classified as a stage 3 loan.
              Forbearance                                         (loan is considered as performing);
              The Bank can implement forbearance agreements        – A minimum two-year probation period has                            The Bank has no asset finance customers currently   such as Experian and Moody’s as well as using its
              for the servicing and management of customers       passed from the date the forborne exposure was                        in forbearance with all previous agreements       own internal knowledge and industry publications
              who are in financial difficulty and require some form   considered as performing;                                         that had been subject to forbearance closed or    such as the Bank of England Annual Cyclical
              of concession to be granted, even if this concession     – None of the customer’s exposures are more                      performing and past a 2 year probation period.    Scenario (ACS). Management exercises judgement
              entails a loss for the Bank. A concession may be    than 30 days past due at the end of the                                                                                 in estimating the future economic conditions
              either a modification of the previous terms and     probation period.                                                     At the end of 2022 the Bank had 12 Real Estate    which are incorporated into provisions through the
              conditions of an agreement, which the borrower is                                                                         Finance accounts which were in their concession   modelling of multiple scenarios.
              considered unable to comply with due to financial                                                                         period, with a further 5 accounts which had
              difficulties, or a total or partial refinancing of an                                                                     completed their concession period within the      For the Bank’s provision calculation four different
              agreement that would not have been granted had                                                                            previous 2 year period but within this period had   projected economic scenarios are considered to
              the borrower not been in financial difficulties.                                                                          entered default and an additional 4 accounts which   cover a range of possible outcomes, reflecting
                                                                                                                                        have received forbearance within the past 2 years   upside and downside scenarios relative to the
              The Bank may modify the contractual terms of                                                                              but are now performing.                           baseline forecast economic conditions.
              a loan for several reasons, including to reflect
              changing market conditions, or where forbearance                                                                          Forward‑looking information                       The economic scenarios are generated to capture a
              (i.e. a renegotiation of the terms of a loan) is granted                                                                                                                    range of possible economic outcomes to facilitate
              at the request of a borrower. This modification may                                                                       Determining expected credit losses under IFRS     the calculation of unbiased and expected credit
              have an impact on the IFRS 9 impairment provision                                                                         9 requires the incorporation of forward-looking   losses. The economic variables modelled have been
              stage to which the asset is allocated.                                                                                    macroeconomic information that is reasonable      identified as those that have the most significant
                                                                                                                                        and supportable. To capture the effect of changes   impact on the Bank’s financial statements, and their
              An existing loan whose terms have been modified                                                                           to the economic environment, the calculation of   impact on provisions can be directly assessed.
              may require derecognition, and the renegotiated                                                                           expected credit losses incorporates forward-looking
              loan recognised as a new loan at fair value, with any                                                                     information, and assumptions linked to economic   The Bank’s economic scenarios, and the probability
              adjustments taken through the income statement.                                                                           variables that impact losses in each portfolio.   weightings assigned to each scenario, are produced
              Derecognition is assessed using the same ’10                                                                                                                                by the Bank’s Finance function and reviewed and
              percent’ test applied to financial liabilities. Where a                                                                   The introduction of macroeconomic information     challenged by the Bank’s ALCO and Provisions
              modification does not result in derecognition, the                                                                        introduces additional volatility to provisions. To   Committees and approved by Audit committee.
              gross carrying amount of the asset is recalculated                                                                        calculate forward looking provisions, the Bank    The Bank’s scenarios, their weightings, and
              as the present value of the modified cash flows,                                                                          sources data from industry leading companies      individual forecasts are set out in the tables overleaf:
              discounted at the financial assets original effective
              interest rate. Any subsequent modification gain or
              loss is then recognised in the profit or loss amount.
              When the terms of a financial asset are modified, and
              the modification does not result in derecognition,
              the determination of whether the asset’s credit risk
              has increased significantly reflects comparisons of:
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